Tipster Picks

Welcome to Tipster Picks!

We all need a bit of help sometimes, and our tipping trio are always on hand to share their wisdom on our games. They are:

Will you follow their advice, or go your own way?

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Ahead of the Football Survivor and Big5 action this April 1-3 weekend, the tipsters have been mining the data once again:

The Mailman says…

My pick: “With Tyler Adams confirmed for a spell on the sidelines on top of international break injuries to Gnonto and Wober, Leeds United heads to the Emirates much lighter than any away fan would have hoped. Factor in Arsenal’s 11 wins from 14 and 2.71 goals scored per90, and all signs point to Leeds needing to score more than their hosts for a share of the spoils.“
Potential pick: “Here we have two sides punching above their weight in the top half of the Premier League. We should see goals on the south coast. After all, both rank high for expected goals this term; Brighton 42.8xG & Brentford 39.2xG, bettering the likes of Chelsea, Leicester, and Fulham. A draw isn’t off the table here, though home advantage may be just enough for the Seagulls to fend off the visiting Bees.“
Risky pick: “Fortress St. James’ Park has cup final revenge pencilled in. It’s an arena that has overseen just one loss and eight goals conceded this season. After 13 matches, that’s really impressive. As a result, Erik Ten Hag will have his work cut out here, and although his opponents may not be able to lock in three points, you’d be surprised if the Toon weren’t able to avoid defeat as they have been doing in front of raucous support all season.“

The Teacher says…

My pick: “While not exactly banker material, there looks to be decent value in West Ham here. They’ve been very good at home to the lower-ranked sides – Wolves, Everton, Forest and Bournemouth have all lost ‘to nil’ and by at least two clear goals at the London Stadium. Defensively, the Hammers have the best home record in the bottom half, while a look at Infogol’s table derived from expected goals (xG) data actually has them in 10th.“
Potential pick: “Newcastle will climb above their top-four rivals with a win at St James’ Park but recent form suggests them being favourites may be unjustified. The hosts have won just two of their last seven, whereas the visitors have won 12 of their last 16, their one loss being the bizarre 7-0 thrashing at Anfield – an outlier. In-form Marcus Rashford is back in training and Man Utd’s greater confidence can see them repeat their EFL Cup final success.“
Risky pick: “It’s hard to put faith in Chelsea right now and the rewards for backing them look too low. Graham Potter’s men couldn’t put Everton away at Stamford Bridge last time out as their mini-revival stalled. They’ve won just five of their last 19 in all competitions, while their home league record shows they are the lowest scorers in the top half. Villa sit level on points with Chelsea and can get some sort of result.“

Incognito Pro says…

My pick: “Arsenal have won their last five as they show no signs of bottling the title race. The visit of Leeds shouldn’t pose too many problems, especially as the Whites are in the bottom six for xGA away from home this term.“
Potential pick: “Brighton look a decent bet to carry on their good form this weekend, and they are in the top six for xG at home this season, above Spurs, Chelsea and their visitors Brentford. But the Bees have razor-sharp Ivan Toney, who will feel bolstered after his international debut.“
Risky pick: “Ah, Chelsea. It seems like you know what you’re going to get from them under Potter; a decent enough performance with some chances, but just no killer instinct which has seen them score just 29 goals all season, fewer than opponents Villa, Leeds and Leicester. Unai Emery is a canny tactician, and may frustrate the home faithful further.“

Good luck!